Skip to main content

Monthly Market Forecast

Straits Times Index (FTSE STI)

For April, STI made new high as it closed at 3,613.93, the index last visited this level on 7 Dec 2011. However, STI has also reached its 423.6% Fibo level with MACD (Monthly) is hovering near the upper end of its bullish, which may potentially prove to be a foppish signal. But with its Heikin Ashi bars continues trading in bullish momentum, we will continue our bullish call on STI.

Forecast Direction: Upward towards 3,700
Alternate Direction: Sideways range between 3,450

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

Bulls and bears struggling to gain control. DJIA managed to breakout from its downtrend line (Weekly) but is struggling to maintain its bullish momentum with the small Heikin Ashi body for the past few weeks. We want to see stronger buying actions from the bulls for the index to resume uptrend.

Forecast Direction: Sideways range between 24,000 - 24,900
Alternate Direction: Downward towards 23,400

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Similar to DJIA, Bulls and bears are struggling to gain control of HSI. Index is trading in a triangle pattern, with bulls gaining control during the last week of trading in April. Thus, We will want the bullishness to continue translate into a bullish triangle pattern breakout. Though the monthly HSI are seeing bears in control but they are not as agressive, especially with HSI weekly MACD looking to flatten near its zero. This could possibly means the index is consolidating instead of downward trending.

Forecast Direction: Sideways range between 31,500 - 30,000
Alternate Direction: Downward towards 29,100

Disclaimer Applies.

Popular posts from this blog

Eventful Week: FOMC Decision and Earnings Reports Headline Upcoming Week

  Eventful Week: FOMC Decision and Earnings Reports Headline Upcoming Week The week ahead is shaping up to be a busy one for the markets, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and earnings season taking center stage. The FOMC is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, in an effort to combat inflation. This will be the first rate hike after June's pause, and investors will be closely watching the accompanying statement for any clues about the pace of future rate hikes. Earnings season is also in full swing, with more than 100 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report results this week. Investors will be looking for signs of how companies are weathering the current economic and geopolitical challenges. In the meantime, China markets appear to be stabilizing, with the yuan holding steady against the dollar below 7.25 and KweiChow Moutai (600519), a vital component of the China A50 index, which displays strength by breaking out

Wyckoff's Law of Effort

Law of Effort Wyckoff's Law of Effort states that on any single trading day (or week depending on time frame), huge volume (effort) push by participants should see huge price movement, resulting in a wide spread (long body). This is a basic principle of effort and result. However, as per Singtel's case study, we saw huge selling volume on 11 May, yet the price action only shows a narrow spread (small body). This divergence of effort and result in Wyckoff's Law of Effort principles, indicates possible exhaustion in selling or hidden buying. Thus, with a lack of weakness, Singtel should continue trading range bound for the coming days or weeks till further strength or weakness is observed. Swing Traders who trades range can consider positions at 3.70-3.72, with exit target 3.76-3.78.

Markets searching for technical support

  Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 21 Aug 2023 Markets searching for technical support US FOMC minutes have confirmed market’s fear of a hawkish US FED. This fear has triggered a continued sell-off in global equities over the past week. China economy and policy did not help too much either. China Evergrande filed for chapter 11 in US while Country Garden future remain uncertain as investors continue to keep an eye for a more aggressive policy from Beijing to support the economy and people’s confidence. From a technical perspective, markets are searching for technical support levels, where bargain hunters are willing to come in. Support levels are 4,300 for S&P 500 and 3,130 for STI. For the week ahead, market participants will be zooming in on US FED Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting.  We did not uncover trading (tactical) set up for the week ahead and will update once we identify any. Have a great trading week ahead.  Headlines for Week Ahead: Key corp earnings (Nvidia