Market Technician

  Global Weekly Market Outlook — Week of 21 April 2025 Macro Pulse Policy remains the key driver of market direction. This week, focus shifts away from headline 1Q earnings numbers and toward forward guidance, tariff exposure, and supply chain commentary. The Trump administration announced docking fees on Chinese vessels and signaled the final phase of reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, the TikTok deal appears delayed. Markets are expected to trade tactically, with US policy and earnings tone setting the pace. Index Technical & Momentum Views S&P 500 (SPX) • Trend Signal: Downtrend intact • Setup: Price is testing the downward trendline — a potential inflection point • Base Case: Sideways consolidation between 4,800–5,600 • Action Plan: Monitor for breakout confirmation above trendline; current setup favors tactical range plays Chart  Commentary S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 Index is approaching its downward trend line, and we are closely monitoring price action a...

  Week Ahead: 14 Apr 2025 “People were getting a little queasy…” and following the 90-day tariff pause announcement, “the bond market right now is beautiful,” remarked U.S. President Trump. Among the notable market extreme moves last week, investors took note that under Trump 2.0, the tolerance threshold—or the so-called “Trump put”—appears more anchored to the bond market than to equities. Separately, major indices currently resting at key technical support levels, markets may consolidate at current levels or experience a short-term rebound. Gold and the Japanese yen continued to strengthen, reflecting investor concerns over the implications of the administration’s tariff policies on the U.S. dollar and broader economic outlook. As the upcoming corporate earnings season commences, investors will be closely monitoring management commentary on the impact of tariffs on earnings performance and forward guidance. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): Our proprietary SPX Long-Term Cycle ...

  Mastering Market Trends: From Analysis to Trading Strategies Date: Wednesday, 16 April 2025 Time: 7:30 PM – 8:30 PM Venue: Online (via SGX Academy) Speaker: Brandon Leu, CMT, CFTe Understanding market trends is the cornerstone of successful trading and investment strategies. I’m pleased to invite you to my upcoming webinar, “Mastering Market Trends: From Analysis to Trading Strategies,” hosted by SGX Academy on Wednesday, 16 April 2025 . This webinar is designed to equip participants with the tools and techniques necessary to navigate today’s complex market environment. Whether you’re an individual investor or a financial professional, this session will help deepen your understanding of how to effectively analyze and trade market and stock trends. We’ll begin with a clear breakdown of primary and secondary trends , and how to identify them across both market-wide and individual stock levels. Participants will gain the ability to distinguish between long-term trends and shor...

  Week Ahead: 7 Apr 2025 With the announcement of Reciprocal Tariffs, investors will be closely monitoring the responses from the affected countries in the week ahead, as well as President Trump's reaction to China's retaliation. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The downtrend has accelerated, with the S&P 500 continuing its decline and closing at our second support zone (Fibonacci 2.618%). The FFI indicates an extreme move. Our base case suggests that the index may consolidate within the 5,000–5,200 range in the coming week. In a worst-case scenario, the index could remain at current levels before trending lower. To signal any potential trend reversal, a decisive close above our upper downtrend line is required. Straits Times Index (STI): In line with our analysis, the Straits Times Index (STI) has turned lower, closing at its immediate support zone between 3,800 and 3,850. In the week ahead, if STI breaks below 3,800, it has the potential to test the next support zone at 3,...

   Week Ahead: 31 March 2025 The coming week will be pivotal as markets assess global reactions to the  United States' implementation of reciprocal tariffs  and whether President Trump signals any recalibration of trade policy. Among the various risks, the psychological impact on consumer confidence is particularly significant. As evidenced by China’s experience, restoring consumer sentiment and reigniting domestic consumption is no easy task. We do not have any short-term (tactical) ideas for the week ahead. Instead, we will be closely monitoring demand-supply dynamics to identify any short- and long-term opportunities. We wish all our Muslim readers Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri  Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX):  The rebound in the S&P 500 Index was capped at the 5,780 level, now a Support-turned-resistance level. As a result, expectations for a continuation of the downward trend have increased. Immediate support is seen at the 5,550 level (Fibonacci 1....

Singapore REITs Sector ( S-REIT ETF) Poised for Rebound as Rate Outlook Turns Supportive The latest technical breakout in the CSOP iEdge S-REIT ETF (SGX: SRT) presents a opportunity for investors watching the real estate investment trust (REIT) space. Following months of weakness, SRT has decisively broken above its downward trend channel — a signal that the worst may be behind us, at least in the short term. This technical breakout aligns with a fundamental catalyst: the evolving interest rate expectations in the US. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants now overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing rates later this year , with the majority projecting the Fed Funds rate to fall into the 375–400 bps or even lower ranges by Q4 2025. Lower interest rates tend to benefit REITs, as borrowing costs decline and the yield spread versus other income assets becomes more attractive.  Technical Setup: Breakout From the Downtrend After trading within a well...