Week Ahead: Chinese Markets and the Trump Administration Period

Week Ahead, 11 Nov 2024

Macro News:

After the Chinese National People’s Congress concluded on Friday, markets again overestimated Beijing to boost the property sector and the economy. However, the key takeaway from the meeting was that the Chinese government is still taking calculated steps — or perhaps holding back resources in preparation for a potential President Trump 2.0. Either way, the market reaction was negative, with HSI futures down 1.57% at Friday’s close.

Our view is to watch for signs of supply exhaustion as a potential entry point into the Chinese markets, as the government continues to support the economy, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace.

On U.S. markets, our short-term bearish stance reversed after the U.S. election concluded. Indices recovered sharply as uncertainties were cleared, with the "Trump Trade" coming in play.

Medium Term:

• The S&P 500 is facing resistance at 6,000. The index has returned to an upward trend, but we remain cautious in the short term.

• The STI is moving in tandem with U.S. indices and is currently at the 4,720 resistance level, continuing its upward trend. We are cautious in the short term.

• The HSI continues to trade at its first support level of 20,600, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Long Term:

- S&P 500 remains upward

- Hang Seng Index (HSI) remains upward

- Straits Times Index (STI) neutral to upward trend.

Headlines Next Week:

- US Corp Earnings (HD,OXY,DIS)

- SG Corp Earnings (Singtel, Golden Agri)

- US Oct CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Speech by FED officials

- China NPC meeting conclusion and stimulus, Oct Retail Sales, Double 11 Sale

- SG Oct PMI

Disclaimers apply

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