Week Ahead, 16 Dec 2024
Macro News:
On China markets, the same market action persists, “Buy
on stimulus announcements, and sell off a day or two later”. This is the
playbook for a policy-driven market. However, as China’s economic data continues
to hold, if the pledged stimulus are delivered, we could see reflation of the Chinese
economy. Patience is key when investing in China.
On the other hand, we too observes that US markets are
also leaning toward a policy-driven dynamic, as evidenced by the recent rallies
in Bitcoin and Tesla that coincided with the re-election of the US President.
We maintain a bullish outlook on the overall US market. However, we are becoming cautious as Nvidia Corp, the leader in the AI theme, appears to be forming a potential classical bearish head and shoulders pattern after facing pressure from both the US and Chinese governments.
The week ahead features a significant announcement from
the US FOMC committee. As before, the US Federal Reserve Chair's commentary
will likely carry more weight than the rate announcement itself, as the market
widely expects another 25 basis point cut. In addition, the market will be
closely watching the PCE report this week following an elevated PPI report last
week.
·
S&P 500 (SPX): S&P 500 did not
move higher for the week. We are staying cautious for this week. For index to
trend towards 6,180 zone, we need S&P 500 to maintain above 6,000 level.
·
Straits Times Index (STI): Index continues
to be neutral and we are looking out for directional cue this week.
·
Hang Seng Index (HSI): Hang Seng Index
(Grey) retested 20,500 level and reversed, we expect index to trade range bound
for the week as market digest recent Stimulus announcements.
·
S&P 500 (SPX) trend remains upward
·
Hang Seng Index (HSI) trend remains
upward
·
Straits Times Index (STI) trend neutral
to upward trend.
- China Home
Price Index, 1-yr MLF, LPR, Ind Prod
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