Week Ahead: Reciprocal Tariffs - And so it begins...

Week Ahead: 31 March 2025

The coming week will be pivotal as markets assess global reactions to the United States' implementation of reciprocal tariffs and whether President Trump signals any recalibration of trade policy.

Among the various risks, the psychological impact on consumer confidence is particularly significant. As evidenced by China’s experience, restoring consumer sentiment and reigniting domestic consumption is no easy task.

We do not have any short-term (tactical) ideas for the week ahead. Instead, we will be closely monitoring demand-supply dynamics to identify any short- and long-term opportunities.

We wish all our Muslim readers Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri

Medium Term:

S&P 500 (SPX): The rebound in the S&P 500 Index was capped at the 5,780 level, now a Support-turned-resistance level. As a result, expectations for a continuation of the downward trend have increased. Immediate support is seen at the 5,550 level (Fibonacci 1.618%).

Unless the downtrend accelerates significantly, the next key technical support is projected at the 5,180 level (Fibonacci 2.618%).

Straits Times Index (STI): The Straits Times Index (STI) reached our target level of 4,000 before turning lower. This reversal, combined with the narrow daily range observed during the recent upward move, suggests a potential short-term pullback. From a technical perspective, we expect the index to trade lower and retest its immediate support around the 3,850 level.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) continues to trend upward. While our long-term outlook remains bullish, our short term cautious view in the short term remains.

Long Term:

S&P 500 (SPX) Neutral (Upward trend remains intact, downward trend could be developing)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Upward Trend

Straits Times Index (STI) Upward Trend

Headlines Next Week:

- US jobs Report, ISM PMIs, Reciprocal Tariffs Starts,

- China Caixin PMIs,

- SG S&P PMI

Disclaimers apply

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