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Week Ahead: Investors recalibrating the Trump Put, from Equities Market to Bond Market

 


Week Ahead: 14 Apr 2025

“People were getting a little queasy…” and following the 90-day tariff pause announcement, “the bond market right now is beautiful,” remarked U.S. President Trump. Among the notable market extreme moves last week, investors took note that under Trump 2.0, the tolerance threshold—or the so-called “Trump put”—appears more anchored to the bond market than to equities.

Separately, major indices currently resting at key technical support levels, markets may consolidate at current levels or experience a short-term rebound.

Gold and the Japanese yen continued to strengthen, reflecting investor concerns over the implications of the administration’s tariff policies on the U.S. dollar and broader economic outlook.

As the upcoming corporate earnings season commences, investors will be closely monitoring management commentary on the impact of tariffs on earnings performance and forward guidance.

Medium Term:
S&P 500 (SPX): Our proprietary SPX Long-Term Cycle Indicator has signaled a continuation of the prevailing downtrend momentum. However, with the Fund Flow Index (FFI) showing signs of recovery at the 5,000 level, we anticipate the index may consolidate or stage a short-term rebound in the week ahead.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Our China Market Long-Term Cycle indicator continues to signal an intact upward trend, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) remains within its established upward trend channel. We have adjusted the lower boundary of the HSI trend channel to reflect the recent rebound, which occurred near the lower end of the range without breaching the channel.

Given the sharp move earlier this week, we expect the HSI to either extend its rebound or consolidate within the current range in the week ahead.

Straits Times Index (STI): The index has broken below its upward trend line, prompting a shift in our technical trend outlook to neutral. In the near term, following the recent sharp move and a rebound off the 3,400 support level, we expect the index to consolidate within the 3,400–3,700 range over the coming week.

Long Term:
S&P 500 (SPX) Downward Trend
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Upward Trend
Straits Times Index (STI) Neutral Trend

Headlines Next Week:
- US Corp Earnings: GS, BAC, C, NFLX, JNJ, AXP, BX, UNH
- SG Corp Earnings: REITs
- US FED Chair Powell speaks, Retail Sales, Ind Prod
- China 1QGDP, Ind Prod, Retail Sales
- SG Prelim GDP 1Q2025, MAS Policy, NODX

Disclaimers apply



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