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Week Ahead: Market Direction Hinges on Response from U.S. Trading Partners

 



Week Ahead: 7 Apr 2025

With the announcement of Reciprocal Tariffs, investors will be closely monitoring the responses from the affected countries in the week ahead, as well as President Trump's reaction to China's retaliation.

Medium Term:
S&P 500 (SPX): The downtrend has accelerated, with the S&P 500 continuing its decline and closing at our second support zone (Fibonacci 2.618%). The FFI indicates an extreme move. Our base case suggests that the index may consolidate within the 5,000–5,200 range in the coming week. In a worst-case scenario, the index could remain at current levels before trending lower.

To signal any potential trend reversal, a decisive close above our upper downtrend line is required.

Straits Times Index (STI): In line with our analysis, the Straits Times Index (STI) has turned lower, closing at its immediate support zone between 3,800 and 3,850. In the week ahead, if STI breaks below 3,800, it has the potential to test the next support zone at 3,680–3,700, as we have yet to observe signs of an extreme technical downward move.

Currently, the STI's upward trend remains intact. However, a close below the lower channel line would indicate a potential reversal of the uptrend.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) continues to trend upward. While our long-term outlook remains bullish, our short term cautious view in the short term remains.

Long Term:
S&P 500 (SPX) Downtrend (Index closed below 15% from peak. Second confirmation when LT Cycle turns negative)
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Upward Trend
Straits Times Index (STI) Upward Trend

Headlines Next Week:
- US Corp Earnings: JPM, MS, WFC, BLK
- US FOMC minutes, CPI, PPI report 
- China CPI
- SG Prelim GDP 2Q2025 

Disclaimers apply


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