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Week Ahead: US-China Trade Talks in Switzerland Sets Tone for the Week

 



Week Ahead: 12 May 2025
U.S. markets were largely flat as investors awaited the outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing over the weekend.

The Fear & Greed Index is currently in 'Greed' territory — not a bearish signal, but short-term long (bullish) positions should be approached with caution.

Medium Term: 
S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 Index traded within our expectations, within the 5,350–5,550 range. Market could go with directions from here. We will be closely monitoring for signs of demand and supply as the range continues to develop.

Traders could buy near 5,350 with tight stops below 5,300, sell into strength near 5,550–5,580 resistance. Or wait for breakout confirmation for directional follow-through — upside target 5,780 on a break above 5,580

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Our China Market Long-Term Cycle Indicator continues to signal an upward trend. 

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has reached and surpassed our 22,800 target, continuing to trade higher within its established ascending channel.

We expect the uptrend to persist; alternatively, the index may retrace to test support around the 22,500 level.

Traders could maintain a bullish bias; trade pullbacks above 22,500 support. Long entries on dips with stops below 21,400. Upside targets include 23,300 and 24,000 if momentum sustains.
Investors would continue gradual, selective accumulation is appropriate as structural trend remains intact.

Straits Times Index (STI): The Straits Times Index (STI) tested and rebounded from the 3,800 resistance level. Our base case anticipates a retest of the 4,000 zone. Alternatively, the index may consolidate within the 3,800–3,900 range.

Traders could buy on dips above 3,800 with stop-loss below 3,750. Target 3,950–4,000 in the short term. If 4,000 is breached, consider breakout continuation trades with revised upside targets

Long Term:
S&P 500 (SPX) Neutral Trend
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Upward Trend
Straits Times Index (STI) Uptrend Trend

Headlines Next Week:
US Corp Earnings: Walmart, Cisco, Deere, Applied Mat, Target
SG Corp Earnings: SIA, SingPost, Netlink NBN Tr
US: Apr CPI, PPI, retail sales, housing starts, and Powell speech on policy; Trump visits Gulf states; earnings season continues.
China: Apr CPI, PPI, M2, new loans, FDI; US-China trade talks held in Switzerland.
Singapore: Apr NODX data due; market closed for Vesak; Lady Gaga concert series starts.

Disclaimers apply



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