Skip to main content

Week Ahead: US-China Trade Talks in Switzerland Sets Tone for the Week

 



Week Ahead: 12 May 2025
U.S. markets were largely flat as investors awaited the outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing over the weekend.

The Fear & Greed Index is currently in 'Greed' territory — not a bearish signal, but short-term long (bullish) positions should be approached with caution.

Medium Term: 
S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 Index traded within our expectations, within the 5,350–5,550 range. Market could go with directions from here. We will be closely monitoring for signs of demand and supply as the range continues to develop.

Traders could buy near 5,350 with tight stops below 5,300, sell into strength near 5,550–5,580 resistance. Or wait for breakout confirmation for directional follow-through — upside target 5,780 on a break above 5,580

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Our China Market Long-Term Cycle Indicator continues to signal an upward trend. 

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has reached and surpassed our 22,800 target, continuing to trade higher within its established ascending channel.

We expect the uptrend to persist; alternatively, the index may retrace to test support around the 22,500 level.

Traders could maintain a bullish bias; trade pullbacks above 22,500 support. Long entries on dips with stops below 21,400. Upside targets include 23,300 and 24,000 if momentum sustains.
Investors would continue gradual, selective accumulation is appropriate as structural trend remains intact.

Straits Times Index (STI): The Straits Times Index (STI) tested and rebounded from the 3,800 resistance level. Our base case anticipates a retest of the 4,000 zone. Alternatively, the index may consolidate within the 3,800–3,900 range.

Traders could buy on dips above 3,800 with stop-loss below 3,750. Target 3,950–4,000 in the short term. If 4,000 is breached, consider breakout continuation trades with revised upside targets

Long Term:
S&P 500 (SPX) Neutral Trend
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Upward Trend
Straits Times Index (STI) Uptrend Trend

Headlines Next Week:
US Corp Earnings: Walmart, Cisco, Deere, Applied Mat, Target
SG Corp Earnings: SIA, SingPost, Netlink NBN Tr
US: Apr CPI, PPI, retail sales, housing starts, and Powell speech on policy; Trump visits Gulf states; earnings season continues.
China: Apr CPI, PPI, M2, new loans, FDI; US-China trade talks held in Switzerland.
Singapore: Apr NODX data due; market closed for Vesak; Lady Gaga concert series starts.

Disclaimers apply



Most Popular

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI),  annual performance  during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...
Read more

Week Ahead: Trump Trade and the Resilient US Economy

  Week Ahead, 9 Dec 2024 Macro News: U.S. markets continued their record-breaking streak this week following a reassuring speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, highlighting Fed's cautious yet comfortable stance on rate cuts. Beneficiaries of the "Trump Trade" also saw significant gains, with Tesla Inc. rising by +12.77% and Bitcoin up +2.24% for the week. The U.S. technology sector, represented by the QQQ ETF, also performed strongly, boosted by Friday's jobs report, which indicated a resilient economy. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index (2800 ETF) experienced a technical turnaround, gaining +2.28% this week. The rally was fuelled by speculation that Beijing might introduce additional lending and mortgage rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Medium Term: • S&P 500 (SPX): Index remains above the 6,000 level and could trend towards the 6,180 zone. • Straits Times Index (STI): STI reversed near our 3,860 resistance zone. We are neutral and is looking out for...
Read more

Week Ahead: US Indices Momemtum in Question

    Week Ahead: 10 March 2025 Key event this week was  U.S. indices technically closed below the key 30-week (or 150-day) moving average . For the upward trend to continue, the indices need to reclaim levels above the moving averages. Remaining below the 30-week (or 150-day) moving average could indicate that the upward trend has reversed downward. However, in the short term, we expect a rebound as the indices trade near their respective support levels. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX):  The S&P 500 broke below its key upward trendline, which had been established since October 2023. In the longer term, we expect the index to trade sideways or move in a downward direction. In the short term, we anticipate the S&P 500 will find support at the 5,700 level and could rebound to test the 5,860 and then the 5,966 resistance zones. Straits Times Index (STI):  The technical trend remains bullish. We maintain a constructive outlook while staying vigilant for any sig...
Read more