Week Ahead 30 March - 3 Apr 2026
- ME conflict widens with attacks from Yemen
- US stagflation risk is becoming increasingly real
- Inflation expected to rise, with interest rate policy turning hawkish
Expecting Higher Inflation and Hawkish Rates
Oil price movements generally lead US inflation dynamics. The Middle East conflict has driven oil prices higher, sustaining supply-side inflationary pressure. With inflation already at elevated levels, further increases risk prompting the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance.
S&P 500 (SPX):
The Index traded lower after breaching multi-month support. Our outlook continues to anticipate the S&P 500 moving towards 6,099.
Tactical Trade:
Selective short (bearish) trades on bounce preferred.
Long Term Direction:
Neutral
Directional Probability:
Bullish (break above 7,002): 2%
Rangebound (6,550–7,002): 30%
Bearish (Towards 6,099): 68%
Hang Seng Index (HSI):
Bearish expectations towards 24,031, as long index stays below 25,150.
Tactical Trade:
Short trades on bounce preferred.
Long Term Direction:
Neutral
Directional Probability
Bullish (Above 27,383): 5%
Rangebound (25,150–27,383): 30%
Bearish (Towards 24,031): 65%
Straits Times Index (STI):
Index's Fund Flow Indicator turned positive. Expect trading range of 4,697–5,041. Monitoring supply/demand for directional confirmation.
Tactical Trade:
Neutral
Long Term Direction:
Upward Trend (Cautious)
Directional Probability:
Bullish (Break above 5,041): 10%
Rangebound (4,697 - 5,041): 60%
Bearish (below 4,697): 30%
Wishing all Christians a blessed Good Friday
Disclaimers apply