Week Ahead: Markets Expected to Hold Range Amid Two-Week Ceasefire

 


Week Ahead 13 - 17 April

Markets expected to stay muted during the two-weeks cease fire, as the first negotiation between US-Iran ended with no break through.

Close watch on the US banking sector relating to economic outlook and private credit conditions.

Headlines:
US Corp Earnings: JPM, GS, BAC, and BLK 
US Corp Earnings: REITs
US: Mar PPI, Mfg surveys, Ind Prod, Beige Book, US-Iran talks
China: 1Q26 GDP, Mar trade data, Ind Prod, retail sales, unemployment report
Singapore: MAS Apr MPS, Adv 1Q26 GDP, Mar NODX

S&P 500 (SPX):  
Index closed the week in the 6,800 zone. Expect the index to hover around this level for the coming week, given the sharp +8% rally from the 6,313 low to the current 6,816 level.

Tactical Trade: 
Long below 6,750 gap support zone

Long Term Direction:
Bullish (Cautious)

Directional Probability:
Bullish (break above 7,002): 15%
Rangebound (6,550–7,002): 60%
Bearish (Towards 6,099): 25%

Hang Seng Index (HSI): 
HSI rallied and is currently testing 25,800-26,100 resistance zone. Expect index to hover with this range this week. Watching out for directional move.

Tactical Trade: 
Long trade, as long index holds above Gap Support 25,424 - 25,668

Long Term Direction:
Neutral

Directional Probability
Bullish (Above 27,383): 15%
Rangebound (25,150–27,383): 55% 
Bearish (Towards 24,031): 25%

Straits Times Index (STI): 
Expect index to continue trading below resistance this week. Watching out for directional move.

Tactical Trade: 
Neutral

Long Term Direction:
Upward Trend (Cautious)

Directional Probability:
Bullish (Break above 5,041): 15%
Rangebound (4,697 - 5,041): 60%
Bearish (below 4,697): 25%


Disclaimers apply