Market Technician

  Week Ahead: 28 July 2025 Several market-moving events are on the radar this week. Key catalysts include the upcoming U.S.–China meeting in Stockholm, earnings from the Magnificent Seven, and the U.S. FOMC policy statement. Markets broadly expect the Fed to maintain interest rates at current levels. Short Term:  S&P 500 (SPX): US market is trading above the 6,300 level. While we maintain an upside target of 6,600, we remain cautious as the volume-based indicator, FFI, is showing divergence from the prevailing trend. Key levels to monitor are resistance at 6,600 and support at 6,300. Investors remain invested, as the long-term trend remains intact. Traders could long on pullbacks near 6,300 with stop slightly below (e.g., 6,250); target 6,600. Hang Seng Index (HSI): Index has broken above the 25,000 psychological level. We expect the index to trade towards the 26,000 level, which also corresponds to the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the index may consolidate a...

  The Hang Seng TECH Index has made a strong move above the key 5,400–5,500 resistance zone, validating a technical breakout from a multi-month consolidation range. This marks a significant step forward in what now clearly resembles the "Mark-Up Phase" in the Wyckoff Market Cycle, following a long and well-defined Accumulation Phase. Technical Observation As illustrated in the chart, the breakout comes after repeated tests of overhead resistance and a constructive sideways consolidation. The move not only pushes the index above the psychological 5,500 level but also aligns with a broader bullish trend channel that has formed since mid-2024. The Fibonacci projection tool points to 6,100 as the next resistance area (1.618 extension), a level that the index previously tested but failed to hold. Should bullish momentum persist, the subsequent 2.618 Fibonacci extension level around 6,500–6,600 could come into play. Importantly, price action remains well-supported within the a...

  Week Ahead: 14 July 2025 Trump-Powell drama may spill into the week ahead, but markets remain firm on expectations of two 25bp rate cuts in 2H 2025. We are also monitoring GENIUS Act and its potential impact on crypto and stablecoins. US markets hovers near record highs with Nvidia receiving approval to resume exports of its H20 chips to China. However, exhaustion gap was observed on NVDA stock price. While we are not turning bearish, we are watchful for any indications of selling. There’s a market saying: “大礼二十” (The 20% Big Gift). When a price breaks to new highs, there is often a tendency for an additional 20% upside beyond the ATH. Recent example, Bitcoin having breached the USD100,000 mark, it advanced to USD120,000. Could the STI’s breakout above 4,000 be pointing to 4,800? Short Term:  S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 continues to consolidate near the 6,300 resistance zone. We are monitoring signs of either supply or demand that could indicate the next short-term d...

  Re-cap Sheng Siong (OV8.SI) – Reaching 2nd Target Zone We previously highlighted Sheng Siong as entering a potential mark-up phase following a strong breakout, with price consolidating below the $1.88 resistance. The setup was supported by firm relative strength vs. the STI and positive readings on the FFI, indicative of underlying accumulation. Key Developments Since Last Note The stock has since confirmed a breakout above the $1.88 resistance level, accompanied by volume expansion – a classic re-accumulation breakout. Price action has progressed toward the second projected target of $2.05 , validating the bullish thesis and reflecting sustained institutional demand. Momentum indicators remain constructive, although the stock may consolidate near resistance in the short term. Technical Levels to Watch Support: $1.88 (previous breakout level), followed by $1.80. Resistance/Target: $2.05 (Fibonacci extension level). A sustained close above $2.05 could trigger f...

  Week Ahead: 14 July 2025 None of my clients were allocated units in the NTT DC REIT IPO on SGX, except for one who applied for 1,000 units. How about you? NTT DC REIT is scheduled to debut on 14 July at 2:00 PM, and strong demand suggests we may see fireworks on the first day of trading. Over the next two weeks, market direction is likely to be driven by corporate earnings guidance and how companies are adjusting post the “Liberation Quarter.” In particular, AI leaders such as Nvidia Corp and TSMC will remain in the spotlight as they continue to lead the current bull run. Short Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 has approached and is consolidating near our previously identified 6,300 resistance zone, which corresponds to the 2.618x Fibonacci extension. A sustained breakout above this level, supported by expanding demand, would open the path toward our next upside objective at 6,600. On the downside, initial support is expected at 6,150. Momentum-driven traders...