Market Technician

  The Hang Seng TECH Index has made a strong move above the key 5,400–5,500 resistance zone, validating a technical breakout from a multi-month consolidation range. This marks a significant step forward in what now clearly resembles the "Mark-Up Phase" in the Wyckoff Market Cycle, following a long and well-defined Accumulation Phase. Technical Observation As illustrated in the chart, the breakout comes after repeated tests of overhead resistance and a constructive sideways consolidation. The move not only pushes the index above the psychological 5,500 level but also aligns with a broader bullish trend channel that has formed since mid-2024. The Fibonacci projection tool points to 6,100 as the next resistance area (1.618 extension), a level that the index previously tested but failed to hold. Should bullish momentum persist, the subsequent 2.618 Fibonacci extension level around 6,500–6,600 could come into play. Importantly, price action remains well-supported within the a...

  Week Ahead: 14 July 2025 Trump-Powell drama may spill into the week ahead, but markets remain firm on expectations of two 25bp rate cuts in 2H 2025. We are also monitoring GENIUS Act and its potential impact on crypto and stablecoins. US markets hovers near record highs with Nvidia receiving approval to resume exports of its H20 chips to China. However, exhaustion gap was observed on NVDA stock price. While we are not turning bearish, we are watchful for any indications of selling. There’s a market saying: “大礼二十” (The 20% Big Gift). When a price breaks to new highs, there is often a tendency for an additional 20% upside beyond the ATH. Recent example, Bitcoin having breached the USD100,000 mark, it advanced to USD120,000. Could the STI’s breakout above 4,000 be pointing to 4,800? Short Term:  S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 continues to consolidate near the 6,300 resistance zone. We are monitoring signs of either supply or demand that could indicate the next short-term d...

  Re-cap Sheng Siong (OV8.SI) – Reaching 2nd Target Zone We previously highlighted Sheng Siong as entering a potential mark-up phase following a strong breakout, with price consolidating below the $1.88 resistance. The setup was supported by firm relative strength vs. the STI and positive readings on the FFI, indicative of underlying accumulation. Key Developments Since Last Note The stock has since confirmed a breakout above the $1.88 resistance level, accompanied by volume expansion – a classic re-accumulation breakout. Price action has progressed toward the second projected target of $2.05 , validating the bullish thesis and reflecting sustained institutional demand. Momentum indicators remain constructive, although the stock may consolidate near resistance in the short term. Technical Levels to Watch Support: $1.88 (previous breakout level), followed by $1.80. Resistance/Target: $2.05 (Fibonacci extension level). A sustained close above $2.05 could trigger f...

  Week Ahead: 14 July 2025 None of my clients were allocated units in the NTT DC REIT IPO on SGX, except for one who applied for 1,000 units. How about you? NTT DC REIT is scheduled to debut on 14 July at 2:00 PM, and strong demand suggests we may see fireworks on the first day of trading. Over the next two weeks, market direction is likely to be driven by corporate earnings guidance and how companies are adjusting post the “Liberation Quarter.” In particular, AI leaders such as Nvidia Corp and TSMC will remain in the spotlight as they continue to lead the current bull run. Short Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 has approached and is consolidating near our previously identified 6,300 resistance zone, which corresponds to the 2.618x Fibonacci extension. A sustained breakout above this level, supported by expanding demand, would open the path toward our next upside objective at 6,600. On the downside, initial support is expected at 6,150. Momentum-driven traders...

REITs Sector Poised for Upside Amid Falling Yields The REITs sector appears to be entering a recovery phase, supported by a favorable shift in the interest rate environment. As illustrated in the chart above, the NikkoAM-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT ETF (CFA) has started to rebound in tandem with the inverted Singapore 2-Year Government Bond yield, which has been trending higher—a proxy for lower actual yields. This inverse relationship is a well-established dynamic in yield-sensitive asset classes such as REITs. As bond yields decline, the relative attractiveness of REITs improves due to their stable income profile and yield spread advantage over risk-free assets. Lower interest rates also ease refinancing concerns and support property valuations, contributing to improved investor sentiment across the sector. From a technical perspective, the ETF appears to have found a base and is showing early signs of recovery , with the recent price action confirming a short-term bottom. I...

  Week Ahead:23 June 2025 US markets momentum persists, closing at record high. Upcoming earnings season, AI spending, trade talks and Middle East situation are expected to be drivers for the next few weeks of trading.  Short Term:  S&P 500 (SPX): With the index breaking above its February all-time high and a measured technical target at 6,300 (2.618% Fibonacci extension), bullish momentum is intact. Traders could look for pullbacks towards 6,050 as a potential entry area with tight risk controls below gap support. Momentum continuation setups can be monitored on lower timeframes. While investors can consider increasing exposure on dips, particularly in sectors leading the breakout (e.g., tech, industrials). Hang Seng Index (HSI): HSI’s strong weekly close near resistance at 24,200 suggests growing bullish conviction. A break above this could trigger a move towards 24,780 and 26,000. Traders can consider short-term trades targeting 24,780. Reentries can be considered ...