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Showing posts from January, 2024

FOMC Meeting, Big Earnings Reporting and the Week Ahead

  Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 29 Jan 2024 This week is set to be significant for the global economy, as the focus shifts to key data releases and decisions by the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) . In the United States, the anticipation is that the Fed will maintain current interest rates, but investors are keenly observing for indications regarding potential future rate cuts. Attention is also directed towards important economic indicators such as the jobs report, ISM PMI, and JOLTs job openings. Simultaneously, the earnings season persists, featuring reports from major players like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and others.  Mag7 continues to be the major contributors of S&P 500 performance, thus their earnings reports will be key to market direction and investors sentiment. Beyond the US, Chinese PMIs are anticipated to reveal ongoing subdued economic activity despite stimulus efforts, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to release its monetary policy s

SIA (C6L): Beneficiary of Singapore and China mutual 30-day visa-free entry arrangement

  SIA (C6L): Momentum Breakout Exhibiting a breakout from the re-accumulation area , accompanied by a notable surge in trading volume and a relative strength breakthrough above zero.   Investors are embracing the positive development of the China-SG mutual 30-day visa-free initiative.   Target zone at 7.00-7.20 while stop set below 6.40. This setup presents an approximate 2x risk-reward ratio. Disclaimer apply

S&P 500 at All Time High & Week Ahead

  The S&P 500 has reached an all-time high, driven predominantly by the strength of tech stocks . From a technical standpoint, the index is showing resilience as long as it stays above the 4,800 level, leading us to anticipate a potential move towards the 5,000 mark. Nevertheless, our volume-based momentum indicator (FFI) is displaying divergence, prompting a degree of caution regarding the current phase of the rally. In the semiconductor sector, stocks are still reaping the benefits of the ongoing upturn cycle , notably with NVidia (NVDA) taking the lead. Looking ahead, the upcoming week will feature Tesla's results, offering some valuable insights into the electric vehicle market, while Visa's report will shed light on consumer confidence. Micron Tech (MU), price broke above consolidation range , potential move towards 94, possible 100. Stop below 84.00 (10 SMA).     Our stance on the US market remains bullish, maintaining a long position, but we exercise selectivity when

Week Ahead & US SEC Opens Door to Bitcoin ETFs: What Investors Need to Know

  US SEC Opens Door to Bitcoin ETFs: What Investors Need to Know This week marked a significant milestone as the US SEC granted approval for the groundbreaking listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs, opening doors for investors to conveniently engage with cryptocurrency and potentially introducing a new asset class into their portfolios. Despite a -2.51% dip in BTC for the week, likely influenced by profit-taking, ETH surged by +14.60%, with enthusiasts confidently declaring, 'We are next!' Our proprietary correlation model depicts BTC as a hybrid risk-on instrument, combining characteristics of both equities and commodities: Equities (SPY): 0.82 Gold: 0.49 Oil: 0.42 Dollar (DXY): -0.13 Bond (TLT): -0.23 While long-term bullish momentum endures for US markets (SPY), we approach the short term with caution . The upcoming earnings season has heightened investor expectations, and markets are nearing technical resistance levels. In the Singapore market, consolidation persists, while China

Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 8 Jan 2024

  Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 8 Jan 2024 Hope you enjoyed the holidays and ready for the markets. Many investors would be interested what’s the markets ahead in 2024, so I’m sharing some interesting stats using Bard. I asked Bard 2 questions. First, what is the year-end performance of S&P 500 if the first week of trading is down. Next, I’ve also asked what is the year-end performance for the Year of the Dragon. The result is S&P 500 tend to see an average -6.8% return if first week ends negative. While, on a brighter note, year of Dragon experience an average real gain of +6.2% at the end of the year. This proofs to be another year of staying adaptable to the investing environment and risk management. Over the past week, markets mostly dipped after US FED minutes revealed reluctance to adjust rates lower as market has anticipated. Also, profit-taking ahead of the earnings season could have contributed to the selling. Currently, support levels observed for S&P 500 is 4,650,

I asked Bard what's the correlation between the S&P 500's first week performance and its full-year performance. Here's what it replied.

Reply from Bard: Absolutely! Here are some statistics on the correlation between the S&P 500's first week performance and its full-year performance: Overall Correlation: According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500's direction (positive or negative) in the first five trading days and for the whole year has historically correlated  69% of the time since 1950. This correlation is even stronger in  presidential election years, occurring  83% of the time  over the same period. Performance Indicators: When the S&P 500 gains in the first five trading days , it has averaged a  14.2% return   for the entire year. Conversely, when the S&P 500 falls in the first five trading days , the average return has been  negative 6.8% . Some recent examples: In 2022, the S&P 500 fell over 1% in the first five days and went on to lose 19.44% for the year. In 2023, the S&P 500 gained in the first five days and ended the year with a 24.23% return. Important Caveats: Whil