Week Ahead: Are we in the ASML weak outlook or TSMC AI boom reality? Either way we are bullish and cautious

Week Ahead, 19 Oct 2024

Are we in ASML's weak outlook reality or TSMC's AI boom outlook reality? Either way, we remain bullish yet cautious on the markets, as indices hit fresh highs and market sentiment becomes overly optimistic. We continue to monitor signs of market demand and supply to guide our medium-term outlook.

Macro News:

- US DJIA, S&P 500, Gold, and Germany's DAX all closed at record highs on Friday.

- China's central bank chief signals the possibility of further interest rate cuts.

Market Trends:

1. Long Term:

- The trend for both the S&P 500 and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) remains upward.

- The Straits Times Index (STI) shows a neutral to upward trend.

2. Medium Term:

- The S&P 500 is nearing our 5,900 technical target level. We remain cautious and are monitoring directional movements.

- The STI is moving higher toward the 3,700 technical target level, with immediate support at 3,500.

- The HSI is at its first support level, 20,600 (Fibonacci 38.2%).

3. Tactical Ideas:

- SBUX (US)

- AAC Tech (HK)

Headlines Next Week:

- US Corp Earnings (Tesla, IBM, Boeing, Hiton, LVS)

- SG Corp Earnings (Keppel, Capland Ascendas REIT)

- US Sept PMI, World Bank-IMF Annual Meeting

- China s LPR fixing

- SG Sept CPI

Disclaimers apply

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