A Hawkish Fed Equates to a Strong Economy?

The US economy is growing, at 2% for 1Q23, even amid high interest rates. This report would confirm the hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve to increase two more hikes in 2H23 but it’s a sign of a resilient economy.

S&P500 is nearing our 2nd target at 4,500 (above) and we expect the index to test the resistance level. In absence of supply trades, we could see the index trending higher. Recent technical gap (4,422-4,396) provides support for S&P500. In any event this level is breached, we would reassess the direction of current uptrend.

Strategists have been conservative in their year-end S&P 500 calls (above). We expect them to re-rate their target prices and this could potentially fuel the next leg of the current mark up.

The GDP data is also expected to provide some boost for broader market and smaller capitalised stocks (above) have lagged behind larger cap stocks in the recent rally, as investors search for value within the current bull market.

There are still un-invested funds on the sideline (above). They could be potential source of flows for equities market.

Singapore market (STI) continues to trend down in recent months (above). However, there are some selective long trades that could be considered. Investors should carefully evaluate the risks before entering any long positions.

Headlines for Week Ahead:

US FOMC minutes

US Jun NFP & Jobs Report

China Jun PMI Report

SG Jun PMI Report

SG Jun Retail Sales Report

US market, short trading week (Independence Day)

Blog disclaimers apply

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI), annual performance during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...

Week Ahead: US Indices Momemtum in Question

Week Ahead: 10 March 2025 Key event this week was U.S. indices technically closed below the key 30-week (or 150-day) moving average . For the upward trend to continue, the indices need to reclaim levels above the moving averages. Remaining below the 30-week (or 150-day) moving average could indicate that the upward trend has reversed downward. However, in the short term, we expect a rebound as the indices trade near their respective support levels. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 broke below its key upward trendline, which had been established since October 2023. In the longer term, we expect the index to trade sideways or move in a downward direction. In the short term, we anticipate the S&P 500 will find support at the 5,700 level and could rebound to test the 5,860 and then the 5,966 resistance zones. Straits Times Index (STI): The technical trend remains bullish. We maintain a constructive outlook while staying vigilant for any sig...

Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR: Technical Rebound at Sight After US Broad Market Stabilises

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) USD86.24 Palantir (PLTR) posted a bullish reversal, closing above the 13-day SMA (83.56) with significant volume expansion. This signals potential momentum strength in the near term. First key resistance zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (USD 99.85 – 105.79), which could present selling pressure. Disclaimers apply

Market Technician

Search This Blog