No firework in China markets while US markets upward move continues

The previous week was relatively quiet due to the lack of significant macroeconomic data and the Thanksgiving Holiday, yet financial markets retained a positive trend.

The S&P 500 is nearing its July 23 high of 4,607. From a technical standpoint, we maintain an optimistic outlook, while closely monitoring any signs of weakness in the ongoing trend. Our technical target is set at 4,650 area, with support at 4,500.

Both the China and STI are currently operating within a downward channel. We are actively seeking signs of strength, such as a technical breakout from the trendline, before considering a more bullish stance on these markets.

Despite this, REITs sector in Hong Kong and Singapore appears attractive from an interest rate perspective. We are awaiting price pullbacks to identify entry opportunities.

Regarding tactical trading in the short term, we adopt a cautious approach but continues to seek LONG opportunities in the US markets. Concurrently, we are exercising selectivity in trading within the Hong Kong and Singapore markets.

Headlines for Week Ahead:

- Corp Earnings (PDD, Meituan)

- Tesla Cybertruck event

- US FED Chairman to speak and release of Beige Book report

- US PCE Report, ISM Mfg Report

- China PMI

- SG PMI

Disclaimers apply.

Wyckoff's Law of Effort

Law of Effort Wyckoff's Law of Effort states that on any single trading day (or week depending on time frame), huge volume (effort) push by participants should see huge price movement, resulting in a wide spread (long body). This is a basic principle of effort and result. However, as per Singtel's case study, we saw huge selling volume on 11 May, yet the price action only shows a narrow spread (small body). This divergence of effort and result in Wyckoff's Law of Effort principles, indicates possible exhaustion in selling or hidden buying. Thus, with a lack of weakness, Singtel should continue trading range bound for the coming days or weeks till further strength or weakness is observed. Swing Traders who trades range can consider positions at 3.70-3.72, with exit target 3.76-3.78.

Markets searching for technical support

Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 21 Aug 2023 Markets searching for technical support US FOMC minutes have confirmed market’s fear of a hawkish US FED. This fear has triggered a continued sell-off in global equities over the past week. China economy and policy did not help too much either. China Evergrande filed for chapter 11 in US while Country Garden future remain uncertain as investors continue to keep an eye for a more aggressive policy from Beijing to support the economy and people’s confidence. From a technical perspective, markets are searching for technical support levels, where bargain hunters are willing to come in. Support levels are 4,300 for S&P 500 and 3,130 for STI. For the week ahead, market participants will be zooming in on US FED Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. We did not uncover trading (tactical) set up for the week ahead and will update once we identify any. Have a great trading week ahead. Headlines for Week Ahead: Key corp earnings (Nvidia

Thoughts on Week Ahead: Week 28 Aug 2023 Looking out for technical reversal indication Past week was an eventful one, with significant developments ranging from the arrest of former US President Donald Trump to BRICS expanding its membership to include financial powerhouses Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, the focal point for the financial markets remained the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole. The Chair highlighted that current economic condition is more favorable and hinted at holding rates during the Sept FOMC meeting, but also suggested a possible 25 basis points hike later in 2023, aligning with market expectations. Personal view, mixed rate outlook could suggest potential interest rate pivot (peak). Currently, both the S&P 500 and Hang Seng Index are in the process of establishing support levels at 4,300 and 17,800, respectively. We are closely monitoring these markets for signs of supply exhaustion, which would indicate a potential reversal. Intuit

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