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I asked Bard what's the correlation between the S&P 500's first week performance and its full-year performance. Here's what it replied.

Reply from Bard: Absolutely! Here are some statistics on the correlation between the S&P 500's first week performance and its full-year performance:

Overall Correlation:

  • According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500's direction (positive or negative) in the first five trading days and for the whole year has historically correlated 69% of the time since 1950.
  • This correlation is even stronger in presidential election years, occurring 83% of the time over the same period.

Performance Indicators:

  • When the S&P 500 gains in the first five trading days, it has averaged a 14.2% return for the entire year.
  • Conversely, when the S&P 500 falls in the first five trading days, the average return has been negative 6.8%.
  • Some recent examples:
    • In 2022, the S&P 500 fell over 1% in the first five days and went on to lose 19.44% for the year.
    • In 2023, the S&P 500 gained in the first five days and ended the year with a 24.23% return.

Important Caveats:

  • While these statistics offer some historical trends, they are not guarantees. Individual years can defy the typical patterns.
  • Several factors, such as unforeseen events and seasonal trends, can influence the market beyond the first week's performance.

Additional Resources:

I hope these statistics provide some helpful insights! Remember, while historical data can inform your investment decisions, it's crucial to consider the broader economic and market landscape before making any investments.

Feel free to ask if you have any further questions about this topic or want to explore specific data points in more detail. 


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