Thoughts
on Week Ahead: Week 15
April 2024
As we
embark on the week ahead, it's important to acknowledge the evolving landscape
of market dynamics. Quoting from Netflix's '3 Body Problem,' we find ourselves
in what could be termed a 'Chaotic era.' The S&P 500 has entered a phase of
increased volatility, signaling a potential sideways or downward trend in the
short to medium term. Initial technical support rests at the 5,050 level,
marking a retracement of 23.60%.
This
shift in trend is likely influenced by stronger-than-anticipated inflation data
and job reports, prompting the US Federal Reserve to prolong its 'higher for
longer' rate policy.
While
bank earnings have failed to meet market expectations thus far, the onus now
falls on broader market earnings to sustain current optimism. Failure to do so
could result in investor sell-offs.
China A50 Index failed to break above trend resistance, cautious on tactical trades for Greater China.
Gold experienced climatic action on the final day of the trading week, we expect price to consolidate in the near term.
As we
navigate this dynamic landscape, we haven't identified any specific trading
opportunities for the upcoming week. And we will promptly update should any
arise.
Headlines
for the week:
- Corp
Earnings (GS, BAC, MS, LVS, Netflix, PG, Capital Intg Comm Trust)
- China 1Q24
GDP & Econ data
- SG Mar
NODX
Disclaimers
apply
DBS Group Holdings (D05) and Straits Times Index (STI): Technical Change of Momentum Recent price developments in DBS Group Holdings (SGX: D05) and the Straits Times Index (STI) signal a critical inflection point. Both instruments have breached established ascending trendlines, suggesting a potential reassessment in investor sentiment and market trajectory. DBS Group Holdings (D05) Price Dynamics: DBS has decisively broken below its ascending trendline, closing at SGD 44.23, registering a 3.53% decline. The price action underscores weakening upward momentum and raises the probability of an extended correction phase. Key Technical Levels: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 41.45 50% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 39.78 61.8% Fibonacci retracement: SGD 38.12 Full retracement: SGD 32.72 Outlook: The breach beneath the trendline suggests an erosion of bullish conviction. Immediate attention should be on the 38.2% retracement le...