Weekly Market Outlook

Thoughts on the Week Ahead:
Week of July 1, 2024

The US Presidential debate caused some volatility in Friday evening markets, as participants see the debate as favoring Donald Trump's return to the White House. Both equities and US Treasury bond prices fell after the debate.

On the bright side, the PCE report was positive, with inflation meeting market expectations. While we remain optimistic about the S&P 500, its inability to break above 5,500 and its decline on Friday is concerning. We are closely monitoring market trading actions and the crucial 5,375 support level.

In China, markets continue to face volatility. Our support for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) remains at 17,000-17,200.

Meanwhile, the Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) has returned to its resistance level. We could see a decisive move up or down this coming week.

We are cautious on the markets but will continue to identify trading opportunities in the coming week

Headlines for the week:
- US FOMC Minutes, Job Report, market closes on Thurs
- HK market closes on Mon
- SG May PMI,

Disclaimers apply

Wyckoff's Law of Effort

Law of Effort Wyckoff's Law of Effort states that on any single trading day (or week depending on time frame), huge volume (effort) push by participants should see huge price movement, resulting in a wide spread (long body). This is a basic principle of effort and result. However, as per Singtel's case study, we saw huge selling volume on 11 May, yet the price action only shows a narrow spread (small body). This divergence of effort and result in Wyckoff's Law of Effort principles, indicates possible exhaustion in selling or hidden buying. Thus, with a lack of weakness, Singtel should continue trading range bound for the coming days or weeks till further strength or weakness is observed. Swing Traders who trades range can consider positions at 3.70-3.72, with exit target 3.76-3.78.

DBS Group Holdings (D05): Upward Move Expectations

DBS Group Holdings (D05) Upward Move Expectations Technically, price trading above 36.58, could see DBS Group retest previous high of 38.55. Both Relative Strength and momentum indicator FFI are supportive of the move. Stop below 35.42 Disclaimers apply

Keppel DC REIT (AJBU): Expect price to trade towards S$2.00

Keppel DC REIT (AJBU) Expect price to trade towards S$2.00 We have observed a decrease in technical supply at the S$1.80 support area during recent trading sessions. Furthermore, a softer interest rate outlook could be advantageous for the Data Centre operator. Consequently, we anticipate the REIT to move towards our initial target of S$2.00, with the potential to reach S$2.20 if it breaks through resistance. Our stop level is set below S$1.72. Disclaimers Apply

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