Week Ahead: Higher for Longer, US Equities Struggles to Hold On Longer

Week Ahead: 13 Jan, 2025

· The hot employment report on Friday suggests that the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the target rate at 4.25%-4.50% for an extended period. US equities are showing further technical weaknesses following Friday's report.

· The Chief Economist from Goldman Sachs mentioned that US President-elect Donald Trump will likely seek an average tariff of 20% on most Chinese goods, with rates as high as 60% on certain categories.

· On a lighter note, frequent visitors to Malaysia may be interested to know that the popular Oriental Kopi (0338) will be listed on the Malaysia Exchange (Ace Market) at M$0.44.

· Nil trading set up identified for the week ahead.

Medium Term:

· S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 is experiencing selling pressure. A key level to monitor is 5,780, along with the upward trendline. If the index remains above these levels, it will continue its bullish uptrend. However, trading below these levels could indicate a potential technical trend reversal.

· Straits Times Index (STI): The STI index faced rejection at 3,850 and has fallen back below the 3,700–3,850 range. We will closely monitor the demand and supply dynamics at this point to determine whether bullish sentiment can reaccumulate to drive the index higher or if it will turn lower from here.

· Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) remains in an upward trend. However, the Hang Seng Index (candlestick) traded lower for the week. Without a reversal in the current supply situation, the index could fall to 18,000, representing the 76.8% retracement level.

Long Term:

· S&P 500 (SPX) trend remains upward

· Hang Seng Index (HSI) trend remains upward

· Straits Times Index (STI) trend neutral to upward trend.

Headlines Next Week:

- US Corp Earnings: JPM, WFC, GS, BLK, C, BAC, MS

- US CPI Report, Retail Sales

- China 4Q24 GDP, Econ data

- SG NODX Report

Disclaimers apply

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI), annual performance during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...

Week Ahead: Trump Trade and the Resilient US Economy

Week Ahead, 9 Dec 2024 Macro News: U.S. markets continued their record-breaking streak this week following a reassuring speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, highlighting Fed's cautious yet comfortable stance on rate cuts. Beneficiaries of the "Trump Trade" also saw significant gains, with Tesla Inc. rising by +12.77% and Bitcoin up +2.24% for the week. The U.S. technology sector, represented by the QQQ ETF, also performed strongly, boosted by Friday's jobs report, which indicated a resilient economy. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index (2800 ETF) experienced a technical turnaround, gaining +2.28% this week. The rally was fuelled by speculation that Beijing might introduce additional lending and mortgage rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Medium Term: • S&P 500 (SPX): Index remains above the 6,000 level and could trend towards the 6,180 zone. • Straits Times Index (STI): STI reversed near our 3,860 resistance zone. We are neutral and is looking out for...

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Ltd (BS6) – Bullish Momentum Boosting Near-Term Outlook

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) has been exhibiting favourable technical and fundamental observations. 1. Technicals The chart shows a price breakout above S$2.75 , which had previously served as a strong resistance level. This breakout occurred with increasing volume, indicating strong buying momentum. Price Targets: - 1st Target: S$3.0 - 2nd Target: S$3.20 - Trailing Stop Loss Box (7): S$2.36 (Current) These targets are in line with Fibo extension, 1.618% (S$3.02) and 2.0 (S$3.19). Support and Stop-Loss Investors should keep an eye on the trailing stop at S$2.36 , derived from current Box (7) value. Relative Strength While the stock is outperforming the STI index , the relative strength index (RSI) is not yet overbought, signaling room for further upward movement. 2. Fundementals YZJ's robust strong order and underlying structural trend in s hifting to clean Energy Vessels container and LNG vessels, continues to support company's order book , which extends i...

Market Technician

Search This Blog