Skip to main content

Week Ahead: Higher for Longer, US Equities Struggles to Hold On Longer




Week Ahead: 13 Jan, 2025

·  The hot employment report on Friday suggests that the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the target rate at 4.25%-4.50% for an extended period. US equities are showing further technical weaknesses following Friday's report.

·  The Chief Economist from Goldman Sachs mentioned that US President-elect Donald Trump will likely seek an average tariff of 20% on most Chinese goods, with rates as high as 60% on certain categories.

·  On a lighter note, frequent visitors to Malaysia may be interested to know that the popular Oriental Kopi (0338) will be listed on the Malaysia Exchange (Ace Market) at M$0.44.

·   Nil trading set up identified for the week ahead.

 

Medium Term:

·   S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 is experiencing selling pressure. A key level to monitor is 5,780, along with the upward trendline. If the index remains above these levels, it will continue its bullish uptrend. However, trading below these levels could indicate a potential technical trend reversal.

·   Straits Times Index (STI): The STI index faced rejection at 3,850 and has fallen back below the 3,700–3,850 range. We will closely monitor the demand and supply dynamics at this point to determine whether bullish sentiment can reaccumulate to drive the index higher or if it will turn lower from here.

·   Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) remains in an upward trend. However, the Hang Seng Index (candlestick) traded lower for the week. Without a reversal in the current supply situation, the index could fall to 18,000, representing the 76.8% retracement level.


Long Term:

·       S&P 500 (SPX) trend remains upward

·       Hang Seng Index (HSI) trend remains upward

·       Straits Times Index (STI) trend neutral to upward trend.


Headlines Next Week:
- US Corp Earnings: JPM, WFC, GS, BLK, C, BAC, MS

- US CPI Report, Retail Sales

- China 4Q24 GDP, Econ data

- SG NODX Report

Disclaimers apply

Most Popular

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI),  annual performance  during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...

Week Ahead: Trump Trade and the Resilient US Economy

  Week Ahead, 9 Dec 2024 Macro News: U.S. markets continued their record-breaking streak this week following a reassuring speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, highlighting Fed's cautious yet comfortable stance on rate cuts. Beneficiaries of the "Trump Trade" also saw significant gains, with Tesla Inc. rising by +12.77% and Bitcoin up +2.24% for the week. The U.S. technology sector, represented by the QQQ ETF, also performed strongly, boosted by Friday's jobs report, which indicated a resilient economy. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index (2800 ETF) experienced a technical turnaround, gaining +2.28% this week. The rally was fuelled by speculation that Beijing might introduce additional lending and mortgage rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Medium Term: • S&P 500 (SPX): Index remains above the 6,000 level and could trend towards the 6,180 zone. • Straits Times Index (STI): STI reversed near our 3,860 resistance zone. We are neutral and is looking out for...

Week Ahead: Sustaining December’s Investor-Friendly Momentum

  Week Ahead, 2 Dec 2024   Macro News: Despite inflation remaining firm, the market continues to expect that the US Federal Reserve has a higher probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting . December marks the final month of 2024 as we approach the year's end. Historically, the S&P 500 Index has been favorable to investors in December , with a 70.83% probability of a positive return and an average gain of 0.74%. We hope these trends persist in 2024. Currently, we have not identified any trade setups. We will provide updates if any opportunities arise. Medium Term: ·        S&P 500: The S&P 500 remains above the 6,000 level and could trend towards the 6,180 zone. ·        STI: The STI remains at the 3,700 resistance zone, with no major technical signals observed. If momentum sustains, the index could move towards the 3,860 level. ·     ...