Week Ahead: FOMC and S&P 500 Technical Rebound Expectations

Week Ahead: 17 March 2025

FOMC meeting is scheduled for this week, with rates widely anticipated to be held within the 4.25%–4.5% range. However, the spotlight will be on the Federal Reserve Chairman's statement for insights into future rate policy, inflation, and overall economic conditions.

From a technical perspective, while the S&P 500 Index (US market) remains in a medium-term downtrend, we anticipate the short-term rebound to persist.

Medium Term:

S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 rebounded at the 5,500 level (Fibo 1.618%), falling short of our anticipated target of 5,700. Considering the extreme oversold conditions observed on the FFI, there is a technical expectation for the rebound to extend, potentially testing the resistance zone at 5,780–5,840, where prior support turned resistance.

Straits Times Index (STI): The STI failed to hold above the 3,850 resistance-turned-support level, rendering the short- to medium-term outlook for the index to be technically neutral. For the upward trend to continue, the index must sustain trading above the 3,850–3,900 gap.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): The China A50 Index (grey line) is still trending upward. The Hang Seng Index (candlestick) has resumed its upward trend after a recent consolidation. Our expectations remain that the HSI's upward momentum to continue, testing the 24,950 level.

Long Term:

S&P 500 (SPX) Trend is Neutral (Downward trend developing)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Trend remains upward

Straits Times Index (STI) Trend Neutral (Upward trend remains intact)

Headlines Next Week:

- US FOMC Meeting, Retail Sales

- China LPR Fixing

- SG NODX Report

Disclaimers apply

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