Week Ahead: Markets Watching U.S. PCE for Tariff Impact

Week Ahead: 26 May 2025

Traders and investors will be closely monitoring developments following President Trump’s escalation of trade tensions, including a proposed 50% tariff on EU goods and potential duties on iPhones. Meanwhile, upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data and the release of the Fed minutes are expected to be key market drivers in the week ahead.

Medium Term:

S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 is currently testing the 5,780 support level. A rebound from this area could signal a resumption of the upward trend. However, if selling pressure persists, the next key support level is at 5,540.

Traders can consider tactical long entries near 5,780 with stop-loss below 5,750. Target a rebound toward 6,000 and 6,147 if momentum returns. If breached: Shift to short bias toward 5,540 support zone.

Investors to maintain core exposure but stay defensive. Accumulate selectively on confirmed rebound signals.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Our China Market Long-Term Cycle Indicator continues to signal an upward trend for HK/China markets. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) recovery continues. Index is expected to trade sideways, with the possibility of testing support around the 22,750 level.

Alternatively, the index's uptrend could extend toward the 24,200 resistance level.

Traders to trade the range between 22,750–24,200. Initiate longs near 22,750 support with stops below 22,400. Consider breakout trades on sustained move above 24,200. While investors can continue to gradually increase exposure to HK/China equities on dips. Structural trend remains positive. Focus on quality names aligned with AI and domestic recovery.

Straits Times Index (STI): The outlook for the Straits Times Index (STI) remains unchanged. Our base case continues to anticipate a retest of the 4,000 zone. Alternatively, the index may consolidate within the 3,800–3,900 range.

Traders can use 3,800–3,900 range for tactical positioning. A confirmed breakout above 3,900 opens a move toward 4,000. Tighten stops below 3,770. And investors continues to hold existing positions, may add on strength above 3,900 or on dips near 3,800 with confirmation of trend resumption.

Long Term:

S&P 500 (SPX) Neutral Trend

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Upward Trend

Straits Times Index (STI) Uptrend Trend

Headlines Next Week:

US: FOMC minutes, Fed speakers, 1Q GDP (2nd), Apr PCE, income/spending, home sales

China: Apr ind prof, May mfg & non-mfg PMI

Singapore: Apr ind prod

Disclaimers Apply

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025)

Historical Stock Market Performance During the Year of the Snake (2025) Introduction: The Chinese zodiac plays a fascinating role in shaping cultural beliefs and behaviors. Among the 12 zodiac animals, the Year of the Snake is often associated with intelligence, caution, and financial shrewdness. We take a simply review of three key indices, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Straits Times Index (STI), annual performance during the Year of the Snake. Key Observations from the Data: S&P 500 Performance: Average annual return: 0.47% . Win/Loss ratio: 37.5% (3 years of gains vs. 5 years of losses). Notable years: 1989 marked a robust gain of 27.25% , while 1941 saw a steep decline of -20.22% , coinciding with global tensions during World War II. HSI Performance: Average annual return: -5.36% . Win/Loss ratio: 66.67% (2 years of gains vs. 1 year of losses). Notable years: The index's strongest year was 1989, with a return of 5.55% , while 2001 suffered a severe decli...

Week Ahead: US Indices Momemtum in Question

Week Ahead: 10 March 2025 Key event this week was U.S. indices technically closed below the key 30-week (or 150-day) moving average . For the upward trend to continue, the indices need to reclaim levels above the moving averages. Remaining below the 30-week (or 150-day) moving average could indicate that the upward trend has reversed downward. However, in the short term, we expect a rebound as the indices trade near their respective support levels. Medium Term: S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 broke below its key upward trendline, which had been established since October 2023. In the longer term, we expect the index to trade sideways or move in a downward direction. In the short term, we anticipate the S&P 500 will find support at the 5,700 level and could rebound to test the 5,860 and then the 5,966 resistance zones. Straits Times Index (STI): The technical trend remains bullish. We maintain a constructive outlook while staying vigilant for any sig...

Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR: Technical Rebound at Sight After US Broad Market Stabilises

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) USD86.24 Palantir (PLTR) posted a bullish reversal, closing above the 13-day SMA (83.56) with significant volume expansion. This signals potential momentum strength in the near term. First key resistance zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (USD 99.85 – 105.79), which could present selling pressure. Disclaimers apply

Market Technician

Search This Blog