Market Technician

  Week Ahead: 27 Oct 2025 Upcoming week highlights: U.S. Big Tech earnings, the FOMC meeting, and the Trump-Xi meeting will take centre stage, while investors closely monitor key economic data and progress on the U.S. government shutdown. Short Term:  S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 is attempting to break out of a two-month range. A sustained move above 6,770 likely trigger momentum toward 6,970. Until confirmed, the index remains range-bound with firm support around 6,600.  Short-term traders consider partial long exposure above 6,770 with stop near 6,640. Hang Seng Index (HSI): The Hang Seng Index is attempting to base above 25,600 after a volatile October. A close above 26,200 would tilt momentum bullish toward 27,000 +, while failure to clear that zone keeps the index range-bound.  Base case remains neutral consolidation with cautious optimism for upside follow-through if FFI momentum and sentiment improve. Short-term traders stay neutral within range; initia...

  Gold Rally Cools After Hitting Key Resistance — What’s Next? After an extraordinary run since late August, gold prices have finally hit a pause . The metal surged over 25% in just two months, touching a high near USD 4,390 — a level that coincides with a key Fibonacci extension resistance . The recent pullback suggests that the rally may be entering a cooling or consolidation phase . Momentum Is Fading After a Parabolic Move Gold’s momentum indicators have started to flatten even as prices made new highs, forming a bearish divergence — a common signal that buying strength is losing steam. At the same time, volume spiked sharply during the final leg of the rally, indicating climax buying as traders rushed to chase the breakout. Historically, such parabolic surges tend to be followed by sideways consolidation or a healthy retracement , rather than an immediate continuation. Key Levels to Watch From a technical standpoint, gold is likely to find short-term support around USD ...

  Week Ahead: 20 Oct 2025 Investors remain focused on corporate earnings and signs of stress within the U.S. banking system, while also watching for potential developments from the upcoming Xi–Trump meeting. Technically, Global equities are transitioning into a consolidation phase after a strong Q3 rally, with momentum fading and volume declining across major indices. Current price structures suggest markets are range-bound between key support and resistance levels, and we are closely monitoring potential breakout signals and shifts in supply demand dynamics to determine whether this is a healthy consolidation or the start of a deeper rotation out of risk assets. Short Term:  S&P 500 (SPX):  The S&P 500 remains range-bound, consolidating between 6,360 and 6,770 as momentum fades (FFI). This suggest investors are turning cautious. A sustained break above 6,770 would revive bullish sentiment toward 7,000, but a close below 6,515 could trigger a corrective pullback ...

  Recent market headlines have turned more risk-off following Trump’s announcement of an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports and new export controls on critical software , which jolted equity markets globally — particularly the S&P 500, which dropped 2.7% , breaking short-term structure. In periods of equity volatility, short-to-intermediate duration Treasuries (like IEI) tend to outperform due to flight-to-safety flows . IEI Duration Profile: 3–7 years maturity, which makes it less sensitive to rate volatility than long-dated Treasuries (like TLT) but still offers negative correlation to risk assets during equity drawdowns. Current Environment: Fed rate cut expectations have firmed amid tariff and growth concerns, further supporting Treasury prices. Futures markets are pricing in a 98% probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC , which provides a tailwind to mid-duration bonds. iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI:US) has technically broken out of a sh...

Week Ahead: 6 Oct 2025 Global equities is came under pressure following Trump’s announcement of an additional 100% tariff on China imports and new export controls. S&P 500 broke short-term structure with a sharp 2.7% selloff, flipping 6,700 into key resistance.  Asian markets are to be under pressure for the week ahead, testing key support levels, Asian traders are watching whether these zones hold or give way to deeper pullbacks. Short Term:  S&P 500 (SPX):  The S&P 500 has broken short-term structure with a wide bearish candle, confirming the bearish divergence seen in momentum. 6,700 has flipped to key resistance; below it, the index may test 6,540 and potentially 6,350. Tactical shorts can be considered on weak rebounds, while swing bulls should wait for confirmation at channel support to buy the dip. A close back above 6,700 would neutralize the bearish signal. Hang Seng Index (HSI): The Hang Seng Index remains in an uptrend but is currently in a pullbac...

  UMS & Frencken – Breakout Momentum in Motion Both UMS and Frencken are exhibiting constructive technical structures, suggesting that the semiconductor equipment and precision engineering segments on the SGX may be entering a period of renewed momentum. Classical breakout for both counters, showing early signs of transitioning from re-accumulation into markup phases, supported by improving relative strength and positive momentum shifts. UMS Holdings (558.SI): Wyckoff Accumulation Breakout UMS has been tracing out a base structure over the past two months, with evidence of a Wyckoff Re-accumulation pattern . The stock printed its Selling Climax (SC) near S$1.32, followed by an Automatic Rally (AR) to S$1.60 and subsequent Secondary Tests (ST) near S$1.37. The current rally above the S$1.45–1.50 zone reflects a Sign of Strength (SOS) move, with rising volume and a sharp positive turn in the momentum oscillator (FFI). Relative strength vs the Straits Times Index is also t...

  Week Ahead: 6 Oct 2025 Short Term:  S&P 500 (SPX):   The S&P 500 remains technically bullish, having broken above its recent trading range resistance. However, the index is advancing on diverging momentum (FFI), which raises the risk of a potential false breakout. While further upside is possible, risk management is critical at these elevated levels. Maintain core exposure but tighten stops or take partial profits near resistance. Traders should wait for follow-through confirmation and guard against a potential false breakout. Hang Seng Index (HSI): The Hang Seng Index has staged a decisive breakout. Sustained holding above the 27,000 level could see the index trade towards the 28,000–28,500 zone. We remain mindful of the diverging FFI momentum indicator. Scale in on pullbacks and monitor momentum divergence. A break below 27,000 may trigger a reversal towards 25,750. Straits Times Index (STI): The STI invalidated last week’s trend channel breakdown and continu...